6
Weaponized
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 93
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 15/01/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |