5
Concrete Overlay
2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 58
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength64%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 4-9 · 50%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength71%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |