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8

Honor And Courage

2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 47

Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 10.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Ellis Park 01/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f Slo 119 · HIGHER CLASS1/08C7C7 @ Ellis Park 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 50 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 50 par21/08C7OR 50projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Ellis Park?10th8th+2
2026-08-01Ellis Park?10th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0821/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -8.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/202610th25/10%18%+0.18
21/08/202610th40/10%10%+0.10