Mambo Man

2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 59

Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 10.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +2.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Kentucky Downs	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0
2026-08-08	Ellis Park	?	10th	8th	+2	2.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%

▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price

Trend▲

Strength18%

Delivery trend +9.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/08/2026	10th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
29/08/2026	11th	50/1	0%	9%	+0.09