Bestfriend Rocket
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 96
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-11-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 02/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |