California Burrito
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 87
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-12-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | -2th | +7 |
| 2025-05-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 0th | +7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 22/03/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |
| 03/05/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 17/06/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |