Curlin's Malibu
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 95
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-12-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 21/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 04/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 10/11 | 95% | 25% | -0.70 |