3
Dai Vernon
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 08/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |