Real Fast
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 95
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/02/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 21/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 26/07/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |