Smoken Boy
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |