10
Breadcrumb Trail
2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 72
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 2-7 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |