14
When I Go
2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
79%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -69.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |