2
Ashkenazi
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 73
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 14/01/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 14% | -0.71 |
| 11/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/08/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |