6
Bright Lady Day
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 71
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 17/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |