IvyArcIvyArc
5

Code Of Valor

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 66

Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Turf Paradise 10/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 4f110y Fas 11810/04C?C5 @ Emerald Downs 21/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 68 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2025 · OR 68 par21/07C5OR 68BHA67 @ Emerald Downs 17/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 67 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2025 · OR 67 par17/0867OR 67C5 @ Emerald Downs 07/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 55 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 55 par7/09C5OR 55C6 @ Turf Paradise 21/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 60 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 60 par21/04C6OR 60C5 @ Emerald Downs 25/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 66 · 5f110y Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 66 par25/05C5OR 66projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-25Emerald Downs?6th3rd+3
2026-04-21Turf Paradise?2nd0th+2
2025-09-07Emerald Downs?3rd-1th+3
2025-08-17Emerald DownsBHA676th5th+1
2025-07-21Emerald Downs?2nd-2th+3
2025-04-10Turf Paradise?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0421/0717/087/0921/0425/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -20.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
21/07/20252nd9/153%88%+0.35
17/08/20256th12/137%0%-0.37
07/09/20253rd14/126%67%+0.40
21/04/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
25/05/20266th15/261%0%-0.61