Dancewhenyoucan
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 69
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
79%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 14/02/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |