12
Diagram
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 73
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2024 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 10/10/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 02/11/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 05/06/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 04/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 24/05/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/06/2026 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |