Ducat
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |