Miss Pierre

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 77

Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.4

Today:

Class gap: +1.1

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-13	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-19	Charles Town	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-05-01	Laurel Park	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2025-12-12	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-11-21	Woodbine	?	7th	3rd	+3	6.6
2025-10-18	Woodbine	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength25%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/08/2025	6th	15/2	61%	38%	-0.23
09/09/2025	4th	14/1	26%	67%	+0.40
28/09/2025	2nd	8/1	58%	80%	+0.22
18/10/2025	2nd	10/1	47%	88%	+0.40
21/11/2025	7th	7/2	82%	0%	-0.82
12/12/2025	5th	11/2	71%	50%	-0.21
01/05/2026	7th	15/2	61%	14%	-0.46
19/06/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	60%	+0.23
13/08/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	88%	+0.14