Modern Sound
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 07/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 15/02/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |