9
Super Costly
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 79
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 01/05/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 03/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 12/09/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 06/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |