7
Pirate Ship
2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 68
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +26.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |