5
Bob's Carrot
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 101
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 21/12/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |