Ghostwritten
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 99
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |