Mo Work
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/04/2026 | 10th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |