2
Remi's Moon
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 18/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |