1
Ski Bum
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/03/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 11% | -0.68 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 90% | -0.06 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |