Stomp

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84

Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 7f

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: -0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-04	Ellis Park	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2025-08-17	Ellis Park	?	8th	7th	+1	2.6
2025-02-08	Oaklawn Park	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength15%

Delivery trend +5.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/02/2025	3rd	7/2	82%	80%	-0.02
17/08/2025	8th	4/1	79%	22%	-0.57
04/07/2026	1st	7/4	91%	100%	+0.09