Trouble Time

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 97

Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 7f

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength49%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.4

Today:

Class gap: +1.1

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-25	Ellis Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2025-12-26	Gulfstream	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2025-11-07	Churchill Downs	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2025-09-27	Churchill Downs	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength27%

Delivery trend -14.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/09/2025	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
07/11/2025	7th	4/1	79%	14%	-0.65
26/12/2025	3rd	13/2	66%	71%	+0.06
25/07/2026	5th	11/2	71%	33%	-0.38