Cosmopolitan Lady

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 77

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength25%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-24	Ellis Park	?	10th	7th	+3	3.0
2026-05-09	Churchill Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength69%

Delivery trend -36.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/05/2026	6th	33/1	0%	55%	+0.55
24/07/2026	10th	20/1	0%	18%	+0.18