14
Crystal Frost
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 70
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |