Fraudster
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 81
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-01-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-09-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 04/01/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 44% | -0.38 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |