4

Gucci Gammy

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 58

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move2
Strength65%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 21/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS21/06C6C6 @ Ellis Park 20/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 49 · 1m Slo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2025 · OR 49 par20/07C6OR 49C9 @ Churchill Downs 03/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 39 · 5f110y 118 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 39 par3/06C9OR 39C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 46 · 6f 120 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 46 par7/07C9OR 46C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 59 · 6f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 59 par28/07C6OR 59projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th1st+3
2026-07-07Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-06-03Churchill Downs?7th7th0
2025-07-20Ellis Park?7th4th+3
2025-06-21Churchill Downs?8th5th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0620/073/067/0728/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 7-16 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength25%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20258th20/10%36%+0.36
20/07/20257th25/10%0%0.00
03/06/20267th40/10%33%+0.33
07/07/20263rd8/158%60%+0.02
28/07/20264th40/10%40%+0.40