10
Market Strategy
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 53
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 29/05/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |