Shot At Perfection
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 76
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-01-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 30/01/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |