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3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 60

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength82%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2025-11-16	Churchill Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2025-09-27	Churchill Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -131.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/09/2025	6th	33/1	0%	44%	+0.44
16/11/2025	6th	5/2	87%	0%	-0.87