Total Fabrication

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 57

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C8.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-24	Ellis Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-06-25	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-24	Churchill Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-04-16	Oaklawn Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-10-22	Presque Isle Downs	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2025-09-23	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 2-16 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength16%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/09/2025	7th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
22/10/2025	8th	10/3	82%	13%	-0.70
16/04/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	80%	+0.43
24/05/2026	5th	4/1	79%	50%	-0.29
25/06/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	82%	+0.66
24/07/2026	4th	5/2	87%	57%	-0.30