3
Valiant War Girl
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 49
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#15
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength15%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +64.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |