4

Estrallita

3yo Filly · 9-3

Clonmel · Clonmel Racecourse Supporters Club Fillies Maiden · 1m 1f 168y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

€100,000 Lope de Vega filly who stepped up on debut when 4¼ lengths sixth of 21 to Mawhibah in maiden at Navan a fortnight ago but is probably one for handicaps after another run.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR - · 1m Goo 1293/08C8C8 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 1292/09C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Navan?6th6th0
2026-08-03Naas?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength92%

Delivery trend -20.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20266th28/10%69%+0.69
02/09/20266th14/126%75%+0.49