11
Arizona Star
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 43
Clonmel · Suir Blueway Handicap (0-60) · 1m 1f 168y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | BHA45 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | BHA50 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA56 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA58 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 18/10/2025 | 13th | 250/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 400/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 18/05/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 53% | -0.12 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |