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2

Ella's Gold

3yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 59

Clonmel · Suir Blueway Handicap (0-60) · 1m 1f 168y

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Forward-going type who was a creditable fourth of 12 in handicap at Navan (1m, good) last month but has disappointed at Galway since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 01/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR - · 7f Yie 1211/08C8BHA51 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 51 · 1m Goo 119 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 51 parBHA56 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 56 · 7f Hvy 134 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 56 par20/1056OR 56BHA59 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m1f190y Goo 129 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 59 · 1m1f Sft 129 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 59 par11/0659OR 59BHA61 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 61 · 1m2f63y Goo 121 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 61 parBHA62 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 62 · 1m Goo 126 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 62 par16/0862OR 62BHA62 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m20y Goo 127 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 62 parBHA60 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m98y Sft 130 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 60 par8/0960OR 60projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08GalwayBHA6012th12th0
2026-08-27NavanBHA624th4th0
2026-08-16CurraghBHA6210th10th0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA613rd3rd0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA592nd2nd0
2026-06-05FairyhouseBHA5912th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/085/0616/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/202510th200/10%36%+0.36
18/09/20252nd25/10%93%+0.93
20/10/20252nd4/179%93%+0.14
05/06/202612th8/158%15%-0.43
11/06/20262nd9/276%94%+0.17
30/06/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
16/08/202610th15/261%25%-0.36
27/08/20264th10/147%73%+0.25
08/09/202612th11/142%15%-0.27