IvyArcIvyArc
1

John La Bear

3yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 60

Clonmel · Suir Blueway Handicap (0-60) · 1m 1f 168y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped up on previous efforts when winning 11-runner handicap at Dundalk in December but has failed to trouble the judge in 2 turf outings this year. Bounce back needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 8.7)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 17/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 6f110y Gd 12617/07C8C8 @ Curragh 09/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 28 · OR - · 6f Gd 133C8 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 5f205y Gd 12524/08C8BHA62 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 62 · 1m Goo 130 · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 62 parBHA60 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Std 130 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 60 par5/1160OR 60BHA59 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m Std 127 · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 59 · 1m Std 129 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 59 par3/1259OR 59BHA65 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 65 · 1m160y Goo 135 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 65 parBHA64 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 64 · 1m98y Yie 134 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 64 par31/0764OR 64projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31GalwayBHA6412th12th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA657th7th0
2025-12-03DundalkBHA591st1st0
2025-11-14DundalkBHA594th4th0
2025-11-05DundalkBHA604th4th0
2025-09-18NaasBHA6214th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0718/093/1231/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength64%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/202510th150/10%31%+0.31
09/08/202513th100/10%56%+0.56
24/08/202513th80/10%0%0.00
18/09/202514th50/10%13%+0.13
05/11/20254th14/126%77%+0.51
14/11/20254th7/163%73%+0.10
03/12/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
01/07/20267th28/10%54%+0.54
31/07/202612th16/116%35%+0.19