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3

Mare Crisium

3yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 57

Clonmel · Suir Blueway Handicap (0-60) · 1m 1f 168y

#12

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#12

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped better than her finishing position when fourth of 21 in handicap at Navan (1¼m, good) 11 days ago, never nearer. Not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: BHA57
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f120y Sft 1293/05C8C8 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m4f30y Sft 126C8 @ Limerick 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m4f70y Sft 12819/06C8C7 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m2f Goo 140 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 65 parBHA63 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m1f135y Goo 137 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 63 par20/0763OR 63BHA63 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 1m5f56y Yie 137 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 61 · 1m4f Goo 133 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 61 par15/0861OR 61BHA59 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 59 · 1m6f Goo 129 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 59 parBHA57 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 21 · OR 57 · 1m2f10y Gd 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 57 par5/0957OR 57projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA574th4th0
2026-08-27NavanBHA595th5th0
2026-08-15TramoreBHA616th6th0
2026-08-05SligoBHA634th4th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA634th4th0
2026-07-08Fairyhouse?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/058/0715/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
19/05/20268th33/10%36%+0.36
19/06/20265th11/486%64%-0.22
08/07/20269th13/266%0%-0.66
20/07/20264th25/10%63%+0.63
05/08/20264th16/116%67%+0.51
15/08/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
27/08/20265th28/10%76%+0.76
05/09/20264th17/255%85%+0.30