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6

Areana

7yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 68

Clonmel · Camida Gold Champion Handicap · 1m 1f 168y

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved for this yard, winning twice last year and returning from 12 months off with a good third at Down Royal having been well backed, doing well to finish where she did after setting a sound pace. Same mark and one to be interested in. Engaged at Punchestown 16.10 on Tuesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Dundalk 11/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m2f150y Std 136 · beat its mark11/10/2024 · OR 59 par11/1059OR 59BHA58 @ Dundalk 06/11/2024 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m2f150y Std 137 · beat its mark06/11/2024 · OR 58 parC8 @ Navan 17/11/2024 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR - · 2m Yie 16117/11C8C8 @ Navan 07/12/2024 · Pos 19th of 25 · OR - · 2m Sft 159BHA54 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 54 · 1m2f110y Goo 124 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 54 par24/0854OR 54BHA63 @ Down Royal 05/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 63 · 1m2f145y Gd 133 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 63 parBHA70 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 70 · 1m2f Goo 119 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 70 par14/0970OR 70BHA68 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 68 · 1m2f145y Goo 139 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 68 parBHA68 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 68 · 1m1f30y Goo 129 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 68 par15/0968OR 68projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA689th9th0
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA683rd3rd0
2025-09-14CurraghBHA7011th11th0
2025-09-05Down RoyalBHA631st1st0
2025-08-24NaasBHA541st1st0
2024-12-07Navan?19th19th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/107/1214/0915/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20246th3/184%62%-0.23
06/11/20247th6/168%50%-0.18
17/11/202411th125/10%50%+0.50
07/12/202419th200/10%25%+0.25
24/08/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
05/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
14/09/202511th33/10%50%+0.50
04/09/20263rd5/174%85%+0.11
15/09/20269th17/255%38%-0.17