3
Earthwatch
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 72
Clonmel · Camida Gold Champion Handicap · 1m 1f 168y
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Kilbeggan | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA76 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +10.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 07/09/2025 | 16th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 15/10/2025 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 03/12/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 27/06/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 79% | +0.73 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |