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4

Expound

7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 72

Clonmel · Camida Gold Champion Handicap · 1m 1f 168y

#2

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

71%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to fire this year but possibly needed the run returning from a 3-month break at Tramore last month (had shaped as if amiss over hurdles the time before). Has good record at this course and below last winning mark, so is one to take seriously if attracting market support.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA119 @ Tramore 14/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 119 · 2m Gd 166 · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 119 par14/08119OR 119BHA80 @ Laytown 04/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 80 · 7f Std 168 · below its mark04/09/2025 · OR 80 parBHA78 @ Clonmel 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 78 · 1m1f130y Sft 140 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 78 par11/0978OR 78BHA70 @ Dundalk 26/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m2f150y Std 134 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 70 parBHA69 @ Dundalk 13/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m Std 139 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 69 par13/0369OR 69BHA67 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 67 · 1m4f Std 137 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 67 parBHA80 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 80 · 1m50y Yie 130 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 80 par25/0480OR 80BHA77 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m1f133y Goo 137 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 77 parBHA74 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 74 · 1m4f Goo 138 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 74 par15/0874OR 74projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15TramoreBHA747th7th0
2026-05-14ClonmelBHA1200
2026-05-08BallinrobeBHA774th4th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA8014th14th0
2026-04-01DundalkBHA674th4th0
2026-03-13DundalkBHA695th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0826/0925/0415/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength12%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20253rd8/158%80%+0.22
04/09/20256th9/276%44%-0.32
11/09/20252nd5/174%89%+0.15
26/09/20256th5/174%62%-0.12
13/03/20265th16/116%69%+0.53
01/04/20264th14/126%75%+0.49
25/04/202614th20/10%13%+0.13
08/05/20264th11/271%63%-0.09
15/08/20267th18/15%0%-0.05