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10

Talking Tough

9yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 43

Clonmel · Camida Winning Solution Handicap (0-60) · 1m 1f 168y

#12

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a 64-race losing run and though he stopped the slide to some extent when coming from a long way back to finish fourth of 9 in claimer (150/1) at Ballinrobe (9.6f, good) 58 days ago, he's likely opposable back in a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.9)

Highest class: BHA34
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA46 @ Clonmel 11/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 46 · 2m144y Sft 147 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 46 par11/0946OR 46BHA43 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 43 · 1m6f Goo 154 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 43 parBHA43 @ Galway 27/10/2025 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 43 · 1m3f180y Hvy 125 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 43 par27/1043OR 43BHA40 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 40 · 1m5f80y Goo 154 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m5f Goo 122 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 40 par7/0640OR 40BHA40 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 40 · 1m2f96y Sft 122 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 40 parBHA34 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 34 · 1m4f71y Gd 154 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 34 par2/0734OR 34C8 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 34 · 1m1f135y Goo 124 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 34 parBHA44 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 44 · 1m4f Yie 168 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 44 par29/0844OR 44projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29CurraghBHA4415th15th0
2026-07-20Ballinrobe?4th4th0
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA347th7th0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA408th8th0
2026-06-07NavanBHA4010th10th0
2026-05-31ListowelBHA406th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0931/052/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength42%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/202511th66/10%0%0.00
26/09/202511th300/10%0%0.00
27/10/202515th100/10%18%+0.18
31/05/20266th200/10%0%0.00
07/06/202610th125/10%31%+0.31
20/06/20268th50/10%36%+0.36
02/07/20267th200/10%0%0.00
20/07/20264th150/10%63%+0.63
29/08/202615th250/10%22%+0.22