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5

Filey Bay

10yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 84

Clonmel · Jerry McDonnell Memorial Tipperary Perpetual Cup Handicap · 2m 174y

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved better than ever to land a gamble at Galway in July 2025. Ran no sort of race in latest renewal of that race and again ran poorly with the headgear discarded at Tramore since. Hood back on but plenty to prove at present.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 11.5 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Tipperary 03/09/2023 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 7f110y Yie 1393/09C?1 @ Listowel 22/09/2023 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 142 · 2m Yie 159 · below its mark22/09/2023 · OR 142 parBHA87 @ Naas 15/10/2023 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 87 · 2m31y Sft 129 · below its mark15/10/2023 · OR 87 par15/1087OR 87BHA84 @ Curragh 29/06/2025 · Pos 14th of 25 · OR 84 · 2m Goo 124 · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 84 parBHA84 @ Galway 28/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 84 · 2m179y Yie 154 · beat its mark28/07/2025 · OR 84 par28/0784OR 84BHA94 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 21st of 30 · OR 94 · 2m170y Yie 131 · below its mark28/09/2025 · OR 94 parBHA92 @ Naas 12/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 92 · 2m7y Yie 128 · below its mark12/10/2025 · OR 92 par12/1092OR 92BHA90 @ Galway 27/07/2026 · Pos 19th of 20 · OR 90 · 2m179y Yie 162 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 90 parBHA89 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 89 · 2m Goo 143 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 89 par15/0889OR 89projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15TramoreBHA898th8th0
2026-07-27GalwayBHA9019th19th0
2025-10-12NaasBHA926th6th0
2025-09-28CurraghBHA9421th21th0
2025-07-28GalwayBHA841st1st0
2025-06-29CurraghBHA8414th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0929/0612/1015/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20236th12/137%0%-0.37
22/09/202310th14/126%44%+0.17
15/10/20234th3/184%80%-0.04
29/06/202514th33/10%46%+0.46
28/07/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
28/09/202521st22/10%31%+0.31
12/10/20256th33/10%74%+0.74
27/07/202619th15/261%5%-0.55
15/08/20268th10/147%0%-0.47