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Royal Hollow

8yo Mare · 9-12 · OR 88

Clonmel · Jerry McDonnell Memorial Tipperary Perpetual Cup Handicap · 2m 174y

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran as well as she ever has in this sphere when neck second at Ballinrobe in June but below that level since. Struggled in Galway Hurdle in late-July but wasn't disgraced back on the level/in a handicap when seventh of 10 at Killarney (14.4f, good) last month. Others more appealing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA129 @ Gowran Park 03/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 129 · 2m80y Sft 155 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 129 par3/10129OR 1291 @ Down Royal 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 129 · 2m190y Goo 153 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 129 parC0 @ Clonmel 14/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m7f131y Yie 15914/04C?1 @ Killarney 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 129 · 2m1f Goo 154 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 129 parBHA128 @ Listowel 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 128 · 2m100y Goo 153 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 128 par30/05128OR 128BHA86 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m5f Yie 136 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 86 parBHA90 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m5f200y Goo 142 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 90 par8/0790OR 901 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 127 · 2m11y Gd 140 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 127 parBHA90 @ Killarney 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m6f80y Gd 134 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 90 par21/0890OR 90projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KillarneyBHA907th7th0
2026-07-30Galway115th15th0
2026-07-08FairyhouseBHA906th6th0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA862nd2nd0
2026-05-30ListowelBHA1282nd2nd0
2026-05-09Killarney13rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/109/058/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength19%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
31/10/20252nd9/276%50%-0.26
14/04/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
09/05/20263rd4/179%75%-0.04
30/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
22/06/20262nd11/142%86%+0.44
08/07/20266th9/276%29%-0.48
30/07/202615th33/10%26%+0.26
21/08/20267th28/10%33%+0.33