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8

Duke Otto

8yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 40

Clonmel · John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap · 2m 174y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

A multiple-winning hurdler, but winless for 18 months and recent efforts in that sphere hardly inspire confidence, despite twice making the frame on the Flat in 2025. Races from 2 lb out of the handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA108 @ Clonmel 15/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 108 · 2m3f137y Goo 165 · below its mark15/05/2025 · OR 108 par15/05108OR 108BHA44 @ Gowran Park 21/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 44 · 2m100y Goo 126 · beat its mark21/05/2025 · OR 44 parBHA42 @ Tramore 08/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 42 · 2m Gd 126 · beat its mark08/07/2025 · OR 42 par8/0742OR 42BHA108 @ Cork 04/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 108 · 2m2f100y Goo 166 · below its mark04/08/2025 · OR 108 parBHA40 @ Tramore 16/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 40 · 2m Goo 124 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 40 par16/0840OR 40BHA107 @ Down Royal 29/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 107 · 2m1f87y GF 163 · below its mark29/08/2025 · OR 107 parBHA40 @ Dundalk 26/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 40 · 2m Std 122 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 40 par26/1140OR 40BHA105 @ Tramore 01/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 105 · 2m180y Sft 151 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 105 parBHA103 @ Thurles 19/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 103 · 2m109y Sft 159 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 103 par19/02103OR 103projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23WexfordBHA1000
2026-02-19ThurlesBHA10311th11th0
2026-01-01TramoreBHA1054th4th0
2025-11-26DundalkBHA404th4th0
2025-09-26ListowelBHA1060
2025-08-29Down RoyalBHA1078th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/054/0826/1119/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20253rd8/158%82%+0.24
21/05/20256th11/142%50%+0.08
08/07/20256th11/486%29%-0.57
04/08/20256th11/142%58%+0.16
16/08/20253rd14/126%75%+0.49
29/08/20258th10/147%42%-0.06
26/11/20254th10/147%70%+0.23
01/01/20264th25/10%67%+0.67
19/02/202611th16/116%38%+0.22